In 2025, GC Realty & Development processed 1,019 lease expirations across the Chicago-area portfolio. That’s a meaningful dataset, big enough to tell a real story about where the Chicago rental market stands and how tenants are actually responding to renewal offers.
The short version: tenants are renewing at historically strong rates, landlords are getting meaningful rent increases, and the combination is giving Chicagoland investors a level of income stability that most of the country doesn’t have right now. The longer version has nuance worth paying attention to, especially heading into 2026.
Key Takeaways for Chicago Real Estate Investors
Of 1,019 lease expirations processed by GC Realty in 2025, 72.3% renewed, compared to a Chicago metro average of 61.1% and a national average even lower.
The average rent increase at renewal was 7.1%, with a median of 6.0%.
18.6% of renewals came with increases above 10%, and tenants still accepted them.
Replacing a tenant in Chicago typically costs three to seven times one month’s rent in hard costs alone.
GC Realty’s renewal rate has held in the low to mid 70s for consecutive years dating back to around 2020.
Rent growth is expected to level off in 2026 as new supply comes to market, making tenant experience a bigger factor in retention.
The Renewal Rate in Context
Of the 1,019 leases tracked, 72.3% renewed. That number is worth being proud of, but the real story sits in the comparison to the broader market.
Benchmark | Renewal Rate |
GC Realty 2025 Portfolio | 72.3% |
Chicago Metro Average | 61.1% |
National Average | Below metro average |
The Chicago metro average renewal rate in 2025 was 61.1%, and the national average is even lower. A well-managed Chicagoland rental that renewed at 72.3% is outperforming the metro average by more than 11 percentage points and outperforming the national benchmark by an even wider margin.
Why This Retention Number Matters
For current and future property owners, understanding renewal trends (and how local trends compare to national ones) is essential to evaluating the health of an investment.
Turnover is expensive. Between vacancy loss, turnover repair costs, utilities during the vacancy window, and the leasing expense itself, replacing a tenant in Chicago typically runs three to seven times the cost of one month’s rent. Those are just the hard costs. The soft costs, including the owner’s time and the risk of an extended vacancy, are even harder to quantify.
When nearly three-quarters of tenants choose to stay, that’s significant cost avoidance playing out across the entire portfolio every year.
The bigger story, though, is in the consistency. GC Realty has posted renewal rates in the low to mid 70s for consecutive years now, and that pattern says something about what’s actually happening on the ground:
When tenants explore their options, they’re often finding rental rates even higher elsewhere across the city and suburbs. Staying put starts to look like the better financial deal.
Tenants who would love to make their next move a home purchase are running into housing inventory near all-time lows, which keeps that door effectively closed for many.
For a growing number of middle-class renters, general economic uncertainty makes holding steady feel like the safer bet.
These aren’t just GC Realty trends. They reflect broader pressures in the Chicago rental market that every landlord and investor should be paying attention to.
The Rent Increase Distribution
For tenants who renewed, the average increase was 7.1%, with a median of 6.0%. Here’s how the increases broke down across the 2025 portfolio:
Rent Increase Range | Share of 2025 Renewals |
No increase (0%) | 8.6% |
Under 5% | 39.1% |
Between 5% and 10% | 33.7% |
Over 10% | 18.6% |
The distribution tells an important story. Most tenants absorbed moderate increases without walking away, and even at the higher end, nearly one in five renewals came with increases above 10%. Many of those larger increases were on properties that needed correction to reach market rate, not arbitrary aggressive pricing.
On some of the larger increases, tenants accepted rent jumps of $400 or more because they knew they were still below market. For those tenants, sticking around another year was simply the smarter plan.
Where to Go Deeper on the 2025 Renewal Data
This piece is the portfolio-wide view, but the same 2025 dataset has been broken down several different ways to surface more specific patterns. For investors who want to dig into the details that matter for a specific property or submarket, a few related pieces pair directly with this one:
• 2024 vs. 2025 Chicagoland Lease Renewals and Increases compares the full 2025 numbers against 2024 across eight quarters and explains what to expect in 2026.
• How Much Did Chicago Area Rents Actually Increase? zooms out to three years and 2,190 leases across six counties.
• How to Reduce Tenant Turnover Without Lowering Rent in Chicago covers the operational moves that keep renewal rates above market.
Investors who want a read on what a specific property should be earning at renewal can start with a free rental analysis from the GC Realty team.
The Takeaway for Chicagoland Landlords
Chicago tenants are staying, and the reasons go beyond any single factor. Moving costs are up, rental rates elsewhere are often higher, homeownership inventory is near historic lows, and economic uncertainty is keeping many renters in a hold-steady mindset. When responsive property management sits on top of those conditions, renewal becomes the clear choice for most tenants.
For landlords, the data is encouraging: a 6 to 7 percent average rent increase paired with a 72% renewal rate shows tenants willing to absorb reasonable increases rather than test the market. That’s room to grow income without sacrificing stability, as long as the property gives tenants a reason to stay beyond the math.
How Long Can This Continue in Chicago?
2025 was the first time GC Realty publicly shared lease renewal data at this level, but the trend itself isn’t new. Renewal rates in the low to mid 70s have been the reality since around 2020. The natural question every Chicago investor should be asking: how long does this last?
The honest answer: Chicago investors are fortunate right now. High renewal rates, consistent rent growth, and limited tenant mobility are tailwinds worth taking advantage of while they’re blowing. But anyone who’s been in real estate long enough knows the market is cyclical. These conditions won’t last forever.
What Will Likely Hold in 2026
The good news is that housing inventory isn’t opening up anytime soon. Affordability constraints and construction costs continue to limit new supply, which keeps existing tenants in place across most of Chicagoland.
What Will Likely Shift in 2026
Rent growth is expected to level off. As more new units come to market, particularly across certain city and suburban submarkets, landlords will need to be more thoughtful about aggressive increases. The risk isn’t just tenants leaving. It’s newer buildings offering concessions and incentives that make an older property look expensive by comparison.
The Factor That Gets Overlooked
There’s another factor that doesn’t get talked about enough: the relationship between a landlord and their residents. Market conditions create the environment, but the tenant experience determines whether a specific property outperforms or underperforms that environment.
Happy tenants who have the amenities they need for their current stage of life (a young professional, a growing family, a downsizing retiree) tend to stay longer than they technically need to. That inertia works in the owner’s favor.
The small things compound over time:
How quickly a question gets answered.
How fast routine maintenance gets handled.
Whether the unit has been updated enough to feel like a home rather than a rental.
None of these guarantees a renewal on their own, but together they remove the reasons tenants start browsing listings in the first place. In a market where tenants are already inclined to stay, giving them one less reason to leave is often all it takes.
Frequently Asked Questions About 2025 Chicago Lease Renewals
What’s a normal renewal rate for a Chicago rental property?
The Chicago metro average renewal rate in 2025 was 61.1%. A well-managed rental in Chicagoland can realistically target the low to mid 70s. GC Realty’s 2025 portfolio came in at 72.3%, above the metro average by more than 11 percentage points.
What’s the actual cost of losing a tenant in Chicago?
Hard costs alone typically run three to seven times the monthly rent when vacancy loss, turnover repairs, utilities during the vacancy window, and leasing expenses are all added up. Soft costs like owner time and extended-vacancy risk are on top of that.
What rent increase should a landlord expect at renewal?
In the 2025 GC Realty portfolio, the average increase was 7.1% and the median was 6.0%. Nearly 40% of renewals had increases under 5%, and about 33.7% had increases between 5% and 10%. Roughly 18.6% of renewals came with increases above 10%, usually on units that needed correction to reach market rate.
Will tenants really accept a $400+ rent increase?
Some will. In the 2025 data, tenants accepted rent jumps of $400 or more when they knew the unit was still under market. For those tenants, the math on moving (plus the current cost and stress of moving) made renewal the better financial outcome.
Why are Chicago renewal rates holding up so well?
Three overlapping forces: rental rates elsewhere are often higher than where the tenant already is, housing inventory for potential buyers is near all-time lows, and broader economic uncertainty has many renters in a hold-steady mindset. Responsive property management layered on top of those conditions makes renewal the clear choice for most tenants.
What should landlords expect for 2026?
Renewal rates will likely stay strong, but rent growth is expected to level off as more new units hit certain Chicago and suburban submarkets. Aggressive increases will carry more risk, because newer buildings with concessions can make an older unit look expensive by comparison. Tenant experience will matter more than it did in 2024 and 2025.
Turn the 2025 Data Into a 2026 Plan
The portfolio-wide numbers only matter if they translate into decisions on specific properties. For every landlord, the real questions are: What’s the right increase for this unit? What does the renewal conversation look like with this tenant? How do current market conditions compare to what this property can actually command in 2026?
Investors who want GC Realty & Development handling the renewal strategy, tenant experience, and pricing discipline that produced a 72.3% renewal rate in 2025 can call the office at 630-587-7400 or start with a free rental analysis to see what the property should be targeting at the next renewal cycle.
